World currencies

Economics 101 – A Non-Economist’s View Of Real Estate Today!

Jim Walberg’s viewpoints regarding key factors impacting today’s real estate market results!

There are non-stop changes happening in residential real estate – locally and nationally.  Also, there are a multitude of factors that are involved in the current condition of residential real estate.  If one does not understand these factors then they will be stuck in the mental state of a “victim of the market”, or they will decide to be “paralyzed from taking action”.  Neither of these conditions will have a positive outcome.  Here are some of the pieces of the puzzle that need to be examined.  The observations are being done by a non-economist – me.

Mortgage Industry:  In the past 18 months over 250 mortgage lenders have closed their doors.  The result for the consumer is that there are VERY FEW choices left for securing a home mortgage.  In fact, the two emerging key players are Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae.  The remaining few banks and mortgage lenders have been badly damaged financially from the poor decisions they made in making the wrong bet on lending products and the belief that future appreciation would support some of the “creative” interest only and/or negative amortization loans. 

The result of the condition of today’s mortgage markets is an atmosphere of fear and over reactions as to who can be granted a home loan.  It is as if they want your first born child pledged as collateral before a home loan will be granted.  You had better have a GREAT credit rating and real money for a down payment if you want to purchase a home.

The good news within the remaining lenders is interest rates are still relatively low, even though they are contrary to what is happening with inflation rates – the highest in 20+ years!  What this means to me is that interest rates will adjust higher before the year is over, maybe right after the election.  The Feds may want to defer any more bad news regarding interest rates until a new president is elected.  They will let him deal with the realities of rising inflation rates.

Consumer Fear:  Remember my definition of FEAR?  False Evidence Appearing Real.  It has been a long time since home prices and interest rates have been so favorable.  If this novice economist is correct, a real Buyer needs to lock their loan today and purchase a home.  If a Seller does not need to sell their house they need to wait until a clearer picture of the future economy unfolds.  If a Seller needs to sell their home today then do it NOW!

World Issues:  What is happening in our local and National economy is not happening in a vacuum.  We are in a World neighborhood where what happens in oil markets of the Middle East impacts the Bay Area.  What is happening in Georgia, with the Russians in charge of their country because they want control of the oil pipeline running through Georgia, is impacting the economy of the rest of the world.  What is unfolding in China and India as major consumer of oil within the next few years will determine the price of our oil no matter how much the U.S. can come up with conservations numbers.     

So, are you getting a BIGGER picture that is causing your brain to take a moment to consider the issues that are impacting real estate and all other factors of our economic lives?  I hope so.  I welcome any of your thoughts about the experience you are currently having, and maybe even expressing what some of your fears are for the future.  Until then…I promise to not stop keeping an eye on real estate and sharing my thoughts.

World currencies

East Bay Real Estate – Further July Updates! The Word Is Still “Micro-Markets”!

The media headlines still are selling newspapers, but they don’t tell the “real story”!

What in the world are consumers supposed to do with the information they are getting in the media everyday?  Here is another July update.  We are still not dealing with a National real estate economy, it is ALL local.  And, it is even smaller that just local…it is made up of Micro-Markets. Here are a few of the news items I heard just last week – both locally and nationally.

• Inflation CPI – 1.6% for June…highest month in 26 years!
• Oil Prices: $4.50 per gallon.  Consumer decisions are dramatically changing daily.
• The U.S. is the world’s shopping center because of currency values.
• Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan – “global hot spots”!  What are the solutions?
• Feds take over IndyMac! 90 more banks on “watch” list.  266 have closed since 2006!
• Feds prevent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from collapsing with billions of dollars of subsidies.  Who is really paying the bill? ( Just in case you don’t know the answer, it is you and me.)
• Blackhawk has 20-months of inventory as of July 1st.
• Brentwood has only 3-months of inventory as of July 1st.
• Dublin’s month’s of inventory is half of Danville’s.
• Antioch had 254 sales in June and Pleasanton had 61, even with similar populations.
• Predictions are Antioch, Brentwood and Oakley will have many more months of foreclosed and bank owned properties coming during the next year or more.
• Lafayette and Orinda home sales continue to thrive.
• 7,000 interest-only home loans will be turning over in Danville soon.  Many of these loans were granted with no income verification that is now not possible with lenders.
• Huge real estate opportunities are now available for first time home buyers, move-up and move-down buyers, and investor clients.
• From Pleasanton to Orinda…it is still a solid market in spite of all the economic chaos around us!

This is the “technical stuff” that consumers are hearing and they are scared about the future.  A Realtor’s job is to provide an action plan that moves real Buyers and real Sellers out of being paralyzed because of fear, and provide them the “rest of the story” of these headlines.  Here are some ideas to consider as you review these headlines;

• No matter what you read, it is a Buyers market today.  Even with multiple offers on bank owned properties…it is a Buyers market.  Yes, there are some dramatic price reductions in micro-markets such as Antioch, Brentwood, and Oakley.  However, prices are holding their own,  from Pleasanton to Orinda – and in this specific corridor there are still micro markets to watch, such as Blackhawk and Windemere.
• Sellers should only list their home for sale if they actually need to sell it within the next year.
• If a home is listed for sale it needs to be priced aggressively with current market conditions as the guide, and it needs to be in “turn key” condition.
• If you are a Buyer that needs to purchase a home within the next six months, lock your home loan TODAY!  It is predicted that mortgage rates will be going UP.  It is time to buy right now!  Good luck if you wait any longer.
• Buyers need to do their homework on VALUE.  All homes listed today in the East Bay are not overpriced.  There are actually Buyers and their Realtors who have done their homework.
• Enter into all of your negotiations with win/win as your ultimate outcome.

Real Estate is still one of the best long term deals in the Bay Area!  So, if you are Buyer, buy now!  If you are a real Seller, then design a price and the condition of your home to sell in weeks instead of months.  And…hire the most experienced Realtor you can find.  This is not the market for the faint of heart or the inexperienced!